"Trial of the Pentarchy over the Russian Orthodox Church or its Patriarch is not unprecedented. This has already happened in history," - Dmytro Horyevoy
According to Dmytro Horyevoy, the trial of the Pentarchy over the Russian Orthodox church or its Patriarch is not something unprecedented. This has already happened in history. In 1666, 4 eastern patriarchs condemned the head of the MP Nikon. Therefore, the religious community notes, it will not be possible to declare that the pentarchy does not have the authority to try Kirill. The historical precedent was already over its predecessor.
Dmytro Horyevoy predicted the main scenarios of condemnation of the Russian Orthodox Church:
"Let's start with a conditionally soft scenario – the condemnation of grassroots performers. Some clerics or hierarchs... This will apply to those who will implement the decisions of the Russian Orthodox Church, that is, who will go and serve in Africa and create parallel structures there. This is an unequivocal violation of the canons...
This scenario allows you to let off steam in bilateral relations while saving space for further dialogue. Conditionally, it is proposed to sacrifice a couple of pawns to start over from scratch. And start here and now. The probability of such a scenario is quite high because the old patriarchs do not want to break the pots completely, they want to leave the possibility of dialogue. The predictable occurrence of this particular scenario is 55%.
The average scenario is to condemn the leadership of the Church – first of all, Patriarch Kirill, followed by Metropolitan Onufriy and the entire synod of the Russian Church as responsible for outright anti-canonical actions in Africa. The Pentarchy has precedents and powers... We can already see how Patriarch Kirill has begun to prepare his flock for a new round of conflict. He said that part of Orthodoxy will soon go into schism. That is, this is how he will interpret the trial of him. They say that he is for the truth, and those who are against him are schismatics.
The Eastern Patriarchs are well aware of this, but by condemning it, they will send a signal that it is impossible to negotiate with the current leaders of the Moscow Patriarchate, and they will wait for a change of power... This will freeze the conflict for a while. The probability of such a scenario is somewhat lower due to the high level of rejection of the act in the Russian Orthodox Church, and therefore its potential ineffectiveness as a tool of punishment. The predictable occurrence of this particular scenario is 35%.
And finally, the hard scenario concerns not the personal but the institutional level. Patriarchs can recall the Oros of 1590 and 1593, which recognized Russian autocephaly and proclaimed the Moscow Patriarchate. The first act was adopted by the Synod of the Patriarchate of Constantinople and can also be revoked by it. But this is a somewhat risky option because then it turns out that one church, even the first in honor and the mother church, can cancel other Churches. This can cause outrage among other churches and become a consolidation factor for a number of Churches against the Phanar.
But the Orosя of 1593 was accepted by all the Eastern patriarchs. And they can definitely cancel it. For violating the canons of the 6th rule and the Ecumenical Council, the 2nd rule of the Second Ecumenical Council, the 105th rule of the Council of Carthage, there are still many different norms to be found. The abolition of this Orosя entails two institutional consequences: the abolition of the Patriarchate and the non-recognition of the canonical territory of the Russian Orthodox Сhurch.
The Russian Patriarch will be downgraded to an archbishop, which automatically lowers his position in the diptych from 5th to 10th or 12th place. This will cause general perturbations in the diptych. In addition, the issue of the canonical territory of the Russian Orthodox Church will arise. It is recognized as of the end of the XVI century – that is, within the Moscow State of the time of Ivan the Terrible. Without the Baltic States, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, Central Asia, the Far East, the European Union, North and South America and, of course, Africa. New autocephaly may theoretically appear in these areas, for example, in Belarus. Or they will be divided, again, purely hypothetically, between other Churches. For example, Moldova can be obtained by Romanians, the Baltic States – by the Ecumenical Patriarch, the Caucasus – by the Georgian church, and Central Asia – by Antioch as the Patriarchate of "the whole East". This is an unlikely scenario, because its implementation will lead to tectonic shifts in world Orthodoxy, and the Church as an institution is quite inert. The predictable occurrence is 10%."