Actions of the UOC-MP may push Putin to invade Ukraine as early as Easter: prediction is made
Valery Kravchenko, director of the Center for International Security, analyzed the growing hysteria on the part of Russian propagandists, officials and the military for Telegraph. The expert calls for closely monitoring the actions of churchmen of the Moscow Patriarchate.
"Russia, indeed, continues to escalate the situation, including on the diplomatic front, as well as the anti-Ukrainian and anti-American hysteria in our own information space. How serious is this? If our main allies are more than concerned about the situation, then "Five Eyes" ("Five Eyes" - an intelligence alliance that includes Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States - Ed.) has some information about the seriousness of the intentions of the Russian Federation and its leadership. British and American reconnaissance planes fly daily in the sky over the Black Sea, controlling the situation," notes Valery Kravchenko.
In his opinion, Putin seeks to achieve a range of goals with the help of another "small victorious war in Ukraine": to suppress the demand for protest in society in connection with Navalny and the upcoming parliamentary elections; to blame the West for all the troubles of the Russian people; to show the same West that Ukraine (at least its Russian-speaking part) is an iron sphere of influence of the Russian Federation, as well as Belarus.
"If you want, you can find a couple of dozen more goals that Moscow can implement through limited escalation," Valery Kravchenko believes. "The bottom line is that Putin needs to start his "Glaiwitz incident" (the attack of Nazis disguised in Polish uniforms on a German radio station in the city of Glaiwitz, organized by the SS on August 31, 1939, as part of a large-scale "operation Himmler" to create a reason for a German attack on Poland-Ed.), rather discredits the authorities in Ukraine. He does this in order that our country does not receive serious military support from Western countries as a result."
The expert urges to closely monitor the actions of churchmen of the Moscow Patriarchate now:
"Recently, they have become more active in Kharkiv and Odessa in particular. These two cities are convenient targets. May 2 is Easter Day and the 7th anniversary of the fire in the House of trade unions in Odessa. May 9 is the Remembrance Sunday and Victory Day. It is just an incredible number of staples of the "Russian world" and propaganda slogans that can be used simultaneously. Probably, the Russian Federation will look for a convenient moment for provocations through this window, one way or another preparing to use parishioners of the UOC-MP for this purpose," predicts Valery Kravchenko. "Ukraine should make the most of the month of preparation. In the end, even if this is all Putin's bluff and muscle play, rapprochement with NATO, solidarity with our allies (the United States, Poland, Turkey, Great Britain, Canada) is our only possible correct policy vector. Probably, we should say thank you to Putin for today's sobering up of the Ukrainian authorities, getting rid of the idealism that we are now seeing. We need to make a realistic assessment of ourselves and our environment - otherwise, a sovereign Ukraine will not survive."