Demographer reveals required birth rate for generational replacement in Ukraine

Ella Libanova, the director of the Institute of Demography and Social Studies named after M. Ptukha, stated in an interview with "Ukrainska Pravda": "In 2021, there were 1.2 children born per woman. However, in order to ensure simple generational replacement considering Ukrainian mortality rates, the average woman should give birth to approximately 2.15 children throughout her life."

In her opinion, achieving generational replacement under Ukrainian mortality conditions is currently impossible. "Absolutely not (unrealistic). No country in Europe has such a birth rate (2.15 children per woman)."

As for the year 2022, the estimated birth rate is around 0.9 children per woman. A catastrophic decline in the birth rate is expected in 2023. During times of war, this trend will undoubtedly intensify, but I do not believe it will be worse than in 2023, even if the war continues into 2024. We estimate the indicator to be around 0.7 children per woman.